International records / OpenAlex research

Determining Optimal Crude Oil Price Benchmark in Nigeria: An Empirical Approach

This paper contributes to on-going empirical search for an appropriate crude oil price benchmark that ensures greater financial stability and efficient fiscal management in Nigeria. It adopted the seasonally adjusted ARIMA forecasting models using monthly data series from 2000m01 to 2012m12 to predict future movement in Nigeria crude oil prices. The paper derived a more robust and dynamic framework that accommodates fluctuation in crude oil price and also in government spending. The result shows that if the incessant withdrawal from the ECA fund and the increasing debt profile of government in…