International records / OpenAlex research

A Small Macroeconometric Model of Nigeria

This study presents a small macroeconometric model to forecast and simulate policy options for the Nigerian economy.The model consists of ten behavioural equations and five identities made up of ten endogenous variables and thirteen exogenous variables.Autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) framework is used to estimate the behavioural equations using annual time-series data for the period 1981-2014.The predictive ability of the model is evaluated and found to be satisfactory as the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and Theil inequality coefficient are considerably small…