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Fitting Alternative Autoregressive and Moving Average Models to Nigeria Crude Oil Prices

The need to compare the efficiency between the Autoregressive Integrated moving average (ARIMA (p,d,q)) models when modelling Crude oil price is the motivation behind this research. The research focuses on different orders of Autoregressive Integrated moving average models. The trend Analysis of the original series were plotted and was observed that crude oil prices were not stationary. The data were transformed by taking a natural log and the series becomes stationary after first differenced. The ACF and PACF of the stationary time series were also plotted which were the basis for the suggest…

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