International records / OpenAlex research

OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS AND MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS: AN ARDL AND NARDL APPROACH

This study investigates the effects of oil price fluctuations on Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators from 2015 to 2023, focusing on inflation and economic growth. Utilizing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) models, we analyze the short-term and long-term impacts of variables such as Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) prices, exchange rates, money supply, interest rates, and economic uncertainties. Results reveal significant short-term effects of oil price increases on inflation and GDP, with asymmetric influences observed in exchange rate movements. The long-term analysis…