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Assessing the Robustness of Ordinary Least Squares and Double Weighted M-Estimation Methods for Predicting Crude Oil Prices in Nigeria: A Study of Predictive Accuracy and Generalization

This study evaluates the robustness of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Double Weighted M-Estimation (DWME) methods for predicting crude oil prices in Nigeria, focusing on predictive accuracy and generalization. Using 192 monthly data points (2006–2021) from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), the dataset included crude oil prices, production, crude oil production, and exchange rates, with synthetic datasets simulated via multivariate normal distribution for varying dimensions (n = 10 to 1,000). The performance measures such as Mean Square…

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