International records / OpenAlex research

Vector Autoregressive Model of Crude Oil Product Prices in Nigeria

This study applies a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to forecast oil product prices in Nigeria, specifically petrol (PMS), diesel (AGO), kerosene (NHK), and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) using data from January 2016 to March 2024. Nigeria's economy is highly sensitive to oil price fluctuations, driven by both domestic and global factors. The VAR model of order 2 effectively captures the interdependencies among the prices of these products and all the equations show very high R-squared values with AGO and NHK performing the best with 99%, followed by LPG and PMS with 98% and 96% respectively.…