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External Reserves and the Policy Trilemma in Nigeria: Reassessing Monetary Policy Independence under Exchange Rate and Capital Flow Constraints

This study reassesses the role of external reserves in shaping Nigeria’s monetary policy independence within the framework of the policy trilemma, which highlights the inherent trade-offs among exchange rate stability, capital flow openness, and monetary autonomy. Using annual data from 1981 to 2023 and employing an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the study explores how external reserves interact with exchange rate policies and capital mobility to influence Nigeria’s monetary autonomy. The study incorporates interaction effects to capture the conditional relationships between r…

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