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Exchange Rate Volatility and Stock Market Performance in Nigeria: Evidence from EGARCH and TGARCH Models

This study examines the effect of exchange rate volatility on stock market performance in Nigeria over the period 2010–2025 using monthly data. Exchange rate volatility is modelled using asymmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH and TGARCH) techniques, while its effect on stock market returns is analysed within a multivariate regression framework including oil prices and inflation. The results show strong persistence in exchange rate volatility, with the EGARCH model yielding a GARCH coefficient of 0.9754 (p < 0.001) and the TGARCH model confirming significan…

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