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Effects of Stagflation and Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Economic Growth in Nigeria

The impact of stagflation and exchange rate fluctuations on economic growth in Nigeria from 1991 to 2023 is examined. Data obtained from the World Bank include GDP growth rate, inflation (Consumer Price Index), exchange rate (Real Effective Exchange Rate), and unemployment rate. Stagflation is defined both as a multiplicative interaction term (INF × Ue) and as a composite threshold dummy variable (D_STAG = 1 when INF > 10%, Ue > 5%, and GDP growth < 2%), with the latter included for robustness. The analysis utilizes the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing framework and the ass…

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