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The Geography of Fear: Corridor Diffusion and the Spatial Reconfiguration of Insecurity in North-Central and South-West Nigeria

The spatial logic of insecurity in Nigeria has undergone a subtle but consequential shift. While scholarly and policy attention remains fixed on the North-East insurgency and its symbolic school abductions, a different geography of risk has consolidated across the North-Central and South-West. This article documents and theorizes that shift using a dual dataset: 61 school-related threat events between January and May 2026, and 112 general security incidents for May 2026. Drawing on spatial diffusion theory, routine activity theory, and near-repeat victimization, we demonstrate that insecurity …

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