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Macroeconomic Shocks, Human Capital Vulnerability, and Non-Oil GDP Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Modeling of SME Resilience and Operational Drag (1990–2025)

This study investigates the dynamic long-run and short-run impacts of structural macroeconomic shocks, human capital health vulnerabilities, and informal liquidity buffers on non-oil Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in Nigeria over a 36-year period (1990–2025). Driven primarily by Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), the non-oil sector serves as the true shock absorber of the Nigerian economy but faces persistent operational drag. Utilizing continuous time-series data from official sources (CBN, NBS, IHME GBD, and World Bank), the study employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound…

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