International records / OpenAlex research

Terms of Trade Shocks and Current Account Balance: A Threshold Analysis of Nigeria

The relationship between terms of trade shocks (TOT-SHK) and current account balance (CAB) is examined in this study for Nigeria during the period 1990 – 2023. The study is driven by the conflicting empirical findings on the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) hypothesis and the high sensitivity of the Nigerian economy to crude oil export which makes the economy vulnerable to persistent external crude oil price fluctuations. This study differs from previous research which examines the linkage between the terms of trade and external balance in a symmetric manner by incorporating a threshold regress…