International records / OpenAlex research

Causal Inference and Shock Propagation in Energy-Economy Systems: Granger Causality and Variance Decomposition from VAR, VECM, and ARDL Frameworks

This study investigates the causal directions and shock propagation mechanisms between energy consumption, fixed capital, inflation rate, labor force, and economic growth (GDP) in Nigeria over the period 1984–2023. While previous research has established long-run equilibrium relationships among these variables, the directions of causality and the relative contributions of shocks to forecast error variance remain inadequately understood, particularly in the context of unit roots and cointegration. Using three complementary econometric frameworks—Vector Autoregression (VAR), Vector Error Correct…