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Why Policies Fail: The Independent Effects of Industrial Policy and Trade Openness on Structural Transformation in Nigeria, 1986–2023

Purpose: This study aims to examine the independent effects of industrial policy and trade openness on structural transformation in Nigeria for the period 1986-2023, and to offer empirical evidence on how each policy variable drives or constrains structural transformation in an emerging African economy.  Methodology: The annual time series data for the period 1986-2023 were used. The ratio of manufacturing to agricultural value added was used for measuring ST. Government spending on manufacturing subsidies (GSM) was used to proxy industrial policy (IPol), and trade openness (TO) was measured …

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