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Effect of Global Commodity Prices on External Debt in ResourceDependent Economies: Evidence from Nigeria

This paper examines the effect of global commodity prices, proxied by crude oil price, exchange rate and excess crude account on external debt in Nigeria over the period 1990–2022. Using a country-level time-series framework, the study proposes and implements Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing and error-correction modelling to identify short-run and long-run relationships between oil price shocks and Nigeria’s external debt stock, exchange rate, and excess savings account. Using the external debt stock as the dependent variable and oil price, exchange rate, and ECA as indepen…

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    from https://iiardjournals.org/get/JBAE/VOL. 11 NO. 11 2025/Effect of Global Commodity Prices 116-128.pdf