International records / OpenAlex research

Seasonal ARIMA modeling of inflation in Nigeria

The success of monetary and fiscal policies in controlling inflation rates relies largely on the availability of accurate inflation forecasting models. Thus, updated models that require seasonality are required. This study applies the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) process to model the consumer price indices in Nigeria, specifically headline, food and core inflation. The study analyses monthly inflation rate data for the period from January 2003 to December 2023, obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s website. The findings of the study identify the best-fitting…