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Fuel Prices, Subsidy Removal and Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria: A Toda–Yamamoto Analysis

This study investigates the causal relationship between Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) prices and key macroeconomic performance indicators in Nigeria (inflation, unemployment, poverty, and Human Development Index) using the Toda-Yamamoto modified causality approach within an augmented VAR (k+dmax) framework. Drawing on annual time-series data from 1990 to 2023, sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and the World bank World Development Indicators, the analysis incorporates preliminary diagnostics such as Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests, Johanse…

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    from https://iiardjournals.org/get/IJEBM/VOL. 12 NO. 2 2026/Fuel Prices Subsidy Removal 304-318.pdf