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CIA Reading Room cia-rdp83t00966r000100050013-2: HOW FAR MIGHT THE PRICE OF OIL FALL?

Approved 7 71U For RA@N94 7X4/05 : CIA RDP83 009668 0 `f t ~ S 9 .23 July 1982 How Far Might the Price of Oil Fall? (if, fighting subsides in the Gulf, and, especially if peace breaks out) I seem to write a version of this memo every six months or so, but once again, circumstances seem to warrant it. The IEEW of 16 July 1982 shows that the demand for OPEC oil between the 2nd and the 4th Quarters of 1982 is likely to increase by 2-4 million barrels per day. (My guess is that the lower end of this range is more likely than the upper.) Several OPEC producers have given indications that they inten…