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14. Draft Paper Prepared by the National Security Council Staff

U.S. could not count on the availability of oil from the Middle East. Limited or Regional Wars —On oil supply grounds alone, the most damaging limited war case would be a lengthy war in the Middle East. Insurgency (e.g. Vietnam) or civil wars (e.g. Nigeria) are unlikely to give rise to greatly increased oil requirements. Nor, because both arise from factors that are not of widespread significance, are they likely to threaten our multiple sources of supply. Thus, we return to the Middle East war contingency. Two limited war outcomes could threaten Western access to Middle East oil: (a) the Arab…

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