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289. Memorandum From Secretary of Energy Duncan to President Carter

h several members still have a wait-and-see attitude. The resumption of Iraqi crude exports via pipelines to Turkey and Syria, and the continuing exports of modest quantities of Iranian oil, combined with higher production from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Nigeria and a few others, have had a temporary calming effect on the spot market, where prices have recently declined slightly for the first time in ten weeks. This temporary market reaction, however, belies the serious risks which lie ahead. Even with the improved supply picture, world oil production will fall some 2 MMB/D short of projected deman…

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